{"id":4620,"date":"2026-10-12T10:24:25","date_gmt":"2026-10-12T10:24:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/smartinvestingschronicle.com\/index.php\/2026\/10\/12\/politics-home-labour-believe-they-can-win-back-green-voters-after-holborn-and-st-pancras-by-election\/"},"modified":"2026-10-12T10:24:25","modified_gmt":"2026-10-12T10:24:25","slug":"politics-home-labour-believe-they-can-win-back-green-voters-after-holborn-and-st-pancras-by-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/smartinvestingschronicle.com\/index.php\/2026\/10\/12\/politics-home-labour-believe-they-can-win-back-green-voters-after-holborn-and-st-pancras-by-election\/","title":{"rendered":"Politics Home | Labour Believe They Can Win Back Green Voters After Holborn And St Pancras By-Election"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali won the Holborn and St Pancras by-election for the Labour Party (Alamy)<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n


\n 7 min read<\/span>09 October<\/span>
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Labour figures believe the Holborn and St Pancras by-election result has punctured the idea that Zack Polanski\u2019s Greens are an unstoppable force on the left, but they remain cautious about how far it can be extrapolated to the rest of the country.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

Labour\u2019s victory in Holborn and St Pancras has come as a relief to a party that has spent much of the past year watching its support fragment across the political spectrum.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Sagal Abdi-Wali, Labour\u2019s Camden council leader, won the north London seat with 12,292 votes, securing 45 per cent of the vote. Green leader Polanski came second with 8,928 votes, or 33 per cent.<\/p>\n

However, there are still reasons for Labour to be concerned: the party\u2019s majority in the seat fell from 11,572 at the 2024 general election to 3,364, and the Greens managed to more than triple their vote share.<\/p>\n

The result is therefore a mixed one for both parties. Labour has held an incumbent seat while serving in government, where a Green victory would have represented a significant symbolic breakthrough. However, Green figures insist the seat was never a top target seat to begin\u00a0with, with many in the party anticipating a loss before the votes were counted.<\/p>\n

Morale boost for London Labour<\/h4>\n

For Labour MPs in London, the immediate significance of the result is how it will impact the psychology of voters and activists.<\/p>\n

PoliticsHome understands that some London Labour MPs are emailing members to encourage them that now is the best time to get involved in the party, buoyed by the notion that the result has challenged the perception among progressive voters that it is embarrassing to vote Labour in the capital.<\/p>\n

One London Labour MP described the result as a \u201cboost\u201d for the party, after the Greens\u2019 victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election and their strong performance in May\u2019s local elections helped create the impression that Polanski\u2019s party was becoming a viable alternative across the country.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf we want to win these seats again, we need to have people who voted Green in May voting Labour in the next general election, and that is still TBD, but this is a really good sign,\u201d the MP said.<\/p>\n

There is, however, considerable caution alongside the optimism. MPs and activists recognise that a by-election in a safe Labour seat cannot simply be extrapolated into a national recovery, especially when it does not resolve the wider problem of voters abandoning Labour for other parties, including Reform.<\/p>\n

More in Common external affairs manager Louis O\u2019Geran said Labour had performed well in the context of by-elections, which are usually punishing for incumbents and governing parties, but cautioned against reading too much into the result.<\/p>\n

O\u2019Geran argued that winning back Green and independent voters in London was only \u201chalf the story\u201d for Labour. \u201cWhat we’ve seen is him [Prime Minister Andy Burnham] not making enough progress, winning back right defectors,” he added.<\/p>\n

Labour MP for Middlesbrough Andy McDonald said that despite representing a seat where Reform came second in 2024, he feels that Labour\u2019s success in the by-election result \u201capplies across the country, whether it’s Greens in the ascendancy or Reform”.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere has been a response to Andy arriving and just setting out that message of not just hope but ambition as well,” he said.<\/p>\n

“That has really resonated across all the constituencies, and I’d like to think that’s reflected in the changing polls in my own seat as well.\u201d<\/p>\n

He described a \u201cbullishness\u201d in Labour ranks, tempered by \u201crealism\u201d that the economic consequences of international conflicts remained a major challenge for the government.<\/p>\n

How did Labour win?<\/h4>\n

In Holborn and St Pancras, Labour sources credited the party\u2019s ground campaign with delivering the win, pointing to a strong activist operation and conversations with historic Labour voters who said they were happy to vote for the party again.<\/p>\n

The biggest factor, though, was described by both Labour and Green sources as the ‘Burnham bounce’ for Labour\u00a0since the former Greater Manchester mayor took over as prime minister in July. Many Labour figures felt encouraged by a party conference last month that felt positive and forward-facing, with little evidence of in-fighting among conference attendees as national polls showed Labour showing signs of electoral recovery.<\/p>\n

Labour MP for Croydon East Natasha Irons, who served as an aide in the campaign, argued that it successfully combined a national message with a candidate rooted in the constituency.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt has shown that the future of progressive politics sits with the Labour Party, and it always has,\u201d she told PoliticsHome.<\/p>\n

Irons added that \u201cuncertainty about Zack Polanski\u2019s Green Party\u201d had come through on the doorsteps.<\/p>\n

Labour MP for Streatham and Croydon North and former Cabinet minister Steve Reed described the mood among Labour activists as \u201cvery calm\u201d, with most expecting the party to win \u2013 a contrast with the \u201cmanic\u201d atmosphere surrounding the closer Gorton and Denton by-election contest in February, which was won by Green candidate Hannah Spencer.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf Polanski stays, then the Greens don\u2019t have a future,\u201d Reed\u00a0said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey\u2019ve peaked and they\u2019re sliding backwards because the public have seen what the Greens have become and they don’t like it one bit.\u201d<\/p>\n

Why did the Greens lose?<\/strong><\/h4>\n

While the Greens fell short of victory, their 33 per cent vote share represents a substantial advance in one of Labour\u2019s safest seats.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Former Green leader Baroness Natalie Bennett acknowledged the result was disappointing, but said the party remained within reach of Labour.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is one of Labour’s safer seats,\u201d she told PoliticsHome.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cTheir vote, you know, just if you look at the graph, just keeps going down. We’re certainly within striking distance of them in that seat next time. But it certainly won’t be our top target by any means.\u201d<\/p>\n

However,\u00a0at the 2024 general election, pro-Gaza independent candidate Andrew Feinstein won 18.9 per cent of the vote in the seat, splitting the anti-Labour left. Feinstein backed Polanski this time around. Combining Feinstein\u2019s previous share with the Greens\u2019 latest performance suggests the wider vote on the left has increased by only around three and a half percentage points since 2024.<\/p>\n

The swing to the Greens was also less than half the 13 per cent recorded in the Gorton and Denton by-election.<\/p>\n

For Russell Warfield, Polanski\u2019s biographer and close ally, the result should not be interpreted as evidence that the party has run out of road.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf you zoom out from this \u2018this is the end of Polanski psychodrama\u2019 kind of framing of the by-election, what it shows is that even in a really bad week for the Greens, and at the height of Burnham’s popularity\u2026 they can still get the sort of swings that would get them dozens of seats in the next general election,\u201d he told PoliticsHome.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cIn that regard, we’re where we expected to be. It’s a strong position for the Greens to be in.\u201d<\/p>\n

Warfield argued that the party had not necessarily lost momentum so much as reached a plateau.\u00a0He described the low turnout as one of the most damaging aspects of the campaign for the Greens.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe ability to motivate your vote was the route to victory here,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cSo that is obviously disappointing for the Greens.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Greens also faced questions over the political consequences of their conference motion declaring Zionism to be racism. Former leader Caroline Lucas had previously described the motion as \u201cdangerous\u201d and \u201cdivisive\u201d, criticising Polanski\u2019s leadership. After the result, she said that \u201ctripling our vote share was huge\u201d, while urging him to address internal problems.<\/p>\n

Green activists acknowledged the motion might have had some impact, although the short period between its passage and polling day made it difficult to assess its overall significance.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Former party co-leader Jonathan Bartley told PoliticsHome\u00a0the by-election result would \u201cdemand some serious soul searching\u201d, warning of a \u201ctoxicity of the Green party brand\u201d.<\/p>\n

Impact of tactical voting<\/h4>\n

Tactical voting may also have helped Labour. More in Common’s O\u2019Geran pointed to the Liberal Democrats being squeezed since the local elections, with some voters apparently switching to Labour to keep the Greens out.<\/p>\n

\u201cFrom our conversations in Holborn and St Pancras, there is this sense of real risk aversion from a lot of people around Zack Polanski,\u201d O\u2019Geran said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is just this sense that he’s potentially dangerous and divisive.\u201d<\/p>\n

A person close to the Lib Dem campaign told PoliticsHome prior to the by-election that the conference motion could encourage voters to back Abdi-Wali instead of the Lib Dems in order to keep Polanski out of Parliament.<\/p>\n

A Green Party spokesperson insisted the party remained \u201chere to stay and just getting started\u201d, arguing that voters had sent Labour a message demanding rent controls, action on privatised water and justice for Palestinians.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali won the Holborn and St Pancras by-election for the Labour Party (Alamy) 7 min read09 October Labour figures believe the Holborn and St Pancras by-election result has punctured the idea that Zack Polanski\u2019s Greens are an unstoppable force on the left, but they remain cautious about how far […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4621,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4620","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tech-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/smartinvestingschronicle.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4620","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/smartinvestingschronicle.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/smartinvestingschronicle.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/smartinvestingschronicle.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/smartinvestingschronicle.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4620"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/smartinvestingschronicle.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4620\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/smartinvestingschronicle.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4621"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/smartinvestingschronicle.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4620"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/smartinvestingschronicle.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4620"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/smartinvestingschronicle.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4620"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}